Estudo comparativo do uso de krigagem para estimação da escolha do modo particular motorizado

Abstract

This paper aims to analyse and compare the results of two techniques of kriging (Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging) that were applied to estimate the private motorized travel mode choice (car or motorcycle) in known and unknown geographic coordinates. The data used was from the Origin/Destination and Public Transportation Opinion Survey, carried out in 2007/2008 at São Carlos (SP, Brazil).The techniques were applied in the region with 110 sample points. Initially, Decision Tree was applied to estimate the probability of mode choice in surveyed households, thus determining the numeric variable to be used in Ordinary Kriging. For application of Indicator Kriging it was used the variable “main travel mode” in a discrete manner, where “1” represents the use of motorized particular travel mode and “0” characterizes others travel modes. The results obtained by the two spatial interpolation techniques were similar (Kriging maps and cross-validation procedure). However, the Indicator Kriging (IK) obtained the highest number of hit rates. In addition, with the IK it is possible to use the variable in its original form, avoiding error propagation.