Modelagem de nicho ecológico para Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren, 1860) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) no mundo: potencial invasão e riscos diante das mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren, 1860) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an importante polyphagous pest that causes serious damage in a wide variety of plantations, especially in Australia where it is possible to identify the occurrence throughout the country, whether in persistent areas on the coast or ephemeral in the the center, the middle part, the nucleus. Given the wealth of spatial and climatic data in Australia, it is possible to develop very robust distribution and abundance models. In this sense, to understand and identify suitable regions for the establishment of H. punctigera, a CLIMEX modeling analysis was developed. This methodology allows predicting the potential geographic distribution of a species according to its climate preference and showing its response to the climate over time using monthly or weekly climatic data from the location. These predictions were then correlated with subsequente H. punctigera abundance data for eight regions in Australia and later extrapolated to other countries in the world taking into account the current and future climate scenario. Under current and future climatic conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera can establish itself in all tropics and subtropics. Comparison of potential distributions in each climate scenario revealed that, in the future, their potential distribution will likely shift towards the poles and to higher altitudes, in areas that are currently very cold, as observed in Southern Brazil, Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, and South Pacific Islands, including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for managing this pest in each country. To understand how environmental variation in climate change scenarios will influence the development of H. punctigera, a DYMEX analysis was performed. In this analysis, there was a variation in the abundance of individuals compared to the current scenario, in which, in general, the adult population will remain low over the months, while oviposition will present three population peaks (January, March and June). While the average development time of the life stages of H. punctigera reduced between the simulated periods of 2010 and 2100 due to the increase in average temperature.