Análise da alocação de recursos em um projeto de construção de um ramal de gás natural por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo

Abstract

This article describes the development and application of a monte carlo simulation model to assist in the design and assignment of resources on a project to build a natural gas pipeline. Project data, such as activities, time spans, resourcces, and costs are organized through microsoft project software. The simulation model is implemented in microsoft excel by @risk add-in, in order to estimate the probability distribution of the total duration of the project and the total cost. We simulate alternative scenarios hand allocation of work to assess the impact on the total cost of the project. The results indicate that you can reduce the likelihood of the project exceed the deadline and reduce total costs by better assigning the resources to the activities.