Relação de causalidade no sentido de Granger entre desenvolvimento financeiro, comércio exterior e crescimento econômico: Análise do caso brasileiro

Abstract

This paper analyzes the existence of causality in the Granger sense between the variables financial development, foreign trade and economic growth. The motivation is the lack of consensus on the argumentative hypotheses for the causal relationship between the variables mentioned. The study uses the Shaw-Mckinnon model, in international trade theories, the comparative advantages and endogenous growth of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson to structure a causality test. Thus, a brief historical analysis of the external dynamics, of the Brazilian financial and economic development was carried out and, using Granger's causality tests to econometric models of the phenomenon, the hypothesis of the causality relationship between financial development, foreign trade and economic growth is confirmed in the period between 1988 and 2019.