Análise Econômico-Financeira Probabilística de um Empreendimento de Reformas na Construção Civil.

Abstract

Civil construction is one of the most important sectors of the economy and employs more people in Brazil, however, a high mortality rate of companies in this sector is observed in less than two years for various reasons. In this sense, the use of economic-financial modeling tools, such as projection of cash flow, net present value and internal rate of return, have been useful in the construction of sustainable business models. However, there is a high variability of operational factors that make up an engineering venture. In this context, this project aims to generate a business model and perform a probabilistic financial analysis of an enterprise of reforms and civil construction works. For this purpose, a four-phase method is proposed, with the integration of concepts and techniques, such as Business Model Generation Canvas, Monte Carlo simulation, cash flow projection and economic-financial analysis in scenarios. Methodologically, the work was constructed based on a bibliographical research and field research, in which data were collected, treated and analyzed in order to make possible the application of the proposed method. The main results were the expected NPV of R$ 165,564.56 and the risk of NPV negativity of 3.07%, both for the moderate scenario. Finally, it is concluded that the proposed construction and civil works project is feasible from the economic-financial point of view.