Análise espaço-temporal da dengue em Fortaleza e sua relação com o clima urbano e variáveis socioambientais

Abstract

The objective of this research was to diagnose the urban climate of the city of Fortaleza / CE and to relate its elements to the occurrence of dengue cases, taking into account the socioeconomic variables as well. It was verified that, the municipality of Fortaleza presents strong intra and interannual variability of precipitation, while the temperatures are kept constantly high due to the proximity with the equator line. The relative humidity remains above 70%, due to the fact that the municipality is located on the northern coast of the state of Ceará. The trends for average, maximum and minimum temperature, showed that the municipality of Fortaleza tends to warm up, while the relative humidity tends to decrease, inversely proportional, whereas the precipitation has no tendency, being applied the Mann-Kendall test, to prove the significance of trends. The city presents in its history, several cases of epidemics of dengue, being verified epidemic cycles over the years. A survey of the IIP was carried out to identify how the vector infestation frames are related to the occurrence of the disease.The city presents a marked spatial inequality in relation to the socioeconomic elements, in what refers mainly to the physical conditions of sanitation, the peripheral regions being the most precarious according to the indicators of income, housing, water supply, sewage and garbage collection. The urban climatic model reveals that due to the different conditions of use and occupation of the soil, the city presents strong evidence of ICdevelopment, mainly due to the verticalization and the strong densification of buildings, which can provide increasingly favorable environments for the mosquito of dengue. UCMap, together with the social vulnerability model and frequency of dengue cases, revealed an imminent risk in the municipality, mainly in the west, southwest and south of the city, reaching extreme risk situations.