Uma abordagem determinística com análise de incerteza para a viabilidade de programas de eficiência energética: estudo de caso de motores elétricos

Abstract

The increase in end-use equipment´s energy efficiency has been a goal for policy makers, consumers, manufacturers, researchers and, since the 1970s energy crisis of the, the whole society. This objective must be achieved with cost-effectiveness; the benefits generated during the equipment`s life cycle must exceed the investments and costs associated with this improvement in energy performance. This thesis analyzes the parameters associated with end-use equipments energy efficiency and proposes a new approach to establish the cost-effectiveness of the initiatives to improve it, assessing the uncertainty associated with these parameters and their influence on the final result. The equipment´s life cycle costs (LCC) analysis includes the associated technical (efficiency, loading, hours of operation) and economic parameters (energy cost, environmental costs, discount and escalation rates). The method presented is based on a deterministic approach with uncertainty analysis. This method was implemented as a software (app) for android mobile devices in order to allow the access to all of the agents involved in the energy efficiency market. The app was customized for the cost-effectiveness analysis of three-phase induction motors efficiency improvement. The results of this approach are presented for the ongoing minimum efficiency standards performance program in Brazil and also for other situations related to three-phase induction motors.