Aplicação da teoria dos números fuzzys nos modelos de transporte de poluentes para avaliar sua capacidade de previsão do risco de contaminação em rios naturais

Abstract

The study of the water quality in bodies of water, through mathematical modeling has become an important way in the control and conservation of the water resources systems. In the present days, with the significant progress in the computational area, with high-speed computers, it has been possible to represent any physical process, through a mathematical model, with a larger complexity level. In this sense, the transport processes of pollutant, in rivers, estuaries or reservoirs, have been represented in a more realistic way, with the mathematical formulations. On the other hand, the great part of the available mathematical models, in the literature, gives a deterministic treatment to the studies of physical processes. In this case, any study that needs to evaluate uncertainty or engineering risk, it will not get to reach their objectives, without a stochastic treatment in their mathematics formulations. This work studies applications of the Fuzzy Theory in the transport models of pollutant to study the behavior of the concentrations of pollutant in natural rivers, through membership functions. The study develops a methodology, with base in the models of transport fuzzy and it applies this methodology in some rivers with available data. Finally, the study evaluates the capacity of this theory to predict and to calculate fields of risk fuzzy in these bodies of water, showing, like this, its behavior, in the time and along the river. The results show that the fuzzy models, applied to the pollutant transport processes, can be an alternative in the determination of the risk of degradation of any water system.