Choque nos Termos de troca e a conta corrente: uma análise comparativa entre o Brasil e os Estados Unidos

Abstract

In accordance with Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM), exists a positive correlation, that is, the effect of a positive movement in the exchange terms results in the increase in the level of current income of the country biggest of the one than the increase in its permanent income, causing an increase in the aggregate saving and an improvement in the situation of the current account. The objective of the present work is exactly to evaluate these impacts on a typically exporting country of comodities (Brazil) and a industrialized country (U.S.A.), that he is also an important exporter of primary products. For this, we go to use the empirical instrument if it bases on the esteem of a model of autoregressivos vectors, emphasizing the answers the impulses and concurrence of these repercussions on the economic 0 variable, counts to chain and the tax of growth of the real product. The model esteem for Brazil supplies an evidence the existence of a conventional effect HLM, therefore, positive shocks generate increases of competitiveness through the relation enter the prices of the exported products and the prices of the imported products. As U.S.A. is a developed country, not dependent of the relation of the prices of the exported products and the prices of the imported products, effect HLM is not applied.