Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix

Pitombeira Neto, Anselmo Ramalho

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Campo DC	Valor	Idioma
dc.contributor.advisor	Loureiro, Carlos Felipe Grangeiro	-
dc.contributor.author	Pitombeira Neto, Anselmo Ramalho	-
dc.date.accessioned	2015-07-17T14:15:30Z	-
dc.date.available	2015-07-17T14:15:30Z	-
dc.date.issued	2015	-
dc.identifier.citation	PITOMBEIRA NETO, A. R. Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix. 2015. 101 f. Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia de Transportes)–Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2015.	pt_BR
dc.identifier.uri	http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/13013	-
dc.language.iso	en	pt_BR
dc.subject	Transportes	pt_BR
dc.subject	Transportes - Planejamento	pt_BR
dc.subject	Teoria Bayesiana de decisão	pt_BR
dc.title	Dynamic bayesian statistical models for the estimation of the origin-destination matrix	pt_BR
dc.type	Tese	pt_BR
dc.description.abstract-ptbr	In transportation planning, one of the first steps is to estimate the travel demand. A product of the estimation process is the so-called origin-destination matrix (OD matrix), whose entries correspond to the number of trips between pairs of zones in a geographic region in a reference time period. Traditionally, the OD matrix has been estimated through direct methods, such as home-based surveys, road-side interviews and license plate automatic recognition. These direct methods require large samples to achieve a target statistical error, which may be technically or economically infeasible. Alternatively, one can use a statistical model to indirectly estimate the OD matrix from observed traffic volumes on links of the transportation network. The first estimation models proposed in the literature assume that traffic volumes in a sequence of days are independent and identically distributed samples of a static probability distribution. Moreover, static estimation models do not allow for variations in mean OD flows or non-constant variability over time. In contrast, day-to-day dynamic models are in theory more capable of capturing underlying changes of system parameters which are only indirectly observed through variations in traffic volumes. Even so, there is still a dearth of statistical models in the literature which account for the day-today dynamic evolution of transportation systems. In this thesis, our objective is to assess the potential gains and limitations of day-to-day dynamic models for the estimation of the OD matrix based on link volumes. First, we review the main static and dynamic models available in the literature. We then describe our proposed day-to-day dynamic Bayesian model based on the theory of linear dynamic models. The proposed model is tested by means of computational experiments and compared with a static estimation model and with the generalized least squares (GLS) model. The results show some advantage in favor of dynamic models in informative scenarios, while in non-informative scenarios the performance of the models were equivalent. The experiments also indicate a significant dependence of the estimation errors on the assignment matrices	pt_BR
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