Análise da condição de Marshall-Lerner e da curva J por categorias de uso no Brasil

Abstract

The aim of this work is investigate the presence of Marshal-Lerner condition (CML) and the J curve for categories of use of goods and services. To do this, will be used two methodologies: a Johansen’s cointegration test, to analyze the long run effects, and an Impulse Response Function, to obtain the short run impacts. The novelty of this work is the concern with sectorial analyses of trade balance and their impacts due changes in exchange rates. Four categories will be studied: durable goods, non-durable goods, intermediate goods and capital goods. The results appointed that the CML is accepted for all goods. About the J curve, only durable and non-durable goods showed adjustment problems.