Crédito rural e mitigação climática: evidências do Programa ABC no Brasil

Abstract

Traditional agricultural systems are challenged to reconcile productivity gains with multiple dimensions of sustainability, bringing to the forefront the effects of climate change. In this context, this article aims to measure the impact of the Low-Carbon Agriculture Program (Programa ABC) on the gross agricultural production value per greenhouse gas emission in Brazil. Additionally, it seeks to examine the level of credit distribution provided by this instrument across different Brazilian regions. The synthetic control method was employed for this purpose. The results showed that the impact of the ABC Program, measured by the gap between the treated unit (Brazil) and its synthetic control (Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, the United States, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Thailand), during the intervention period (2010–2019), exhibited a positive effect on the analyzed indicator. It is evident that there was a concentration of rural credit allocation in the Center-West and Southeast regions, which received around 31.37% and 29.65%, respectively. In summary, climate policy design should prioritize farmers’ technical training and the dissemination of conservation, mitigation, and adaptation practices in regions that are most vulnerable to climate impacts.