Uma abordagem multicritério para a construção de índices globais de desempenho como subsídio à regulação dos serviços hídricos de irrigação

Abstract

Irrigation accounts for approximately 70% of global freshwater consumption and, in Brazil, for approximately 52% of total use, with Public Irrigation Projects (PPIs) managed by CODEVASF and DNOCS playing a strategic role in the regional development of the Northeast and the São Francisco Valley. Less than half of these projects achieve satisfactory technical efficiency, and the absence of synthetic evaluation instruments restricts benchmarking and performance-based regulation. This study proposes a methodology for constructing global performance indices for irrigation water services, supported by Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods. This quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive research analyzed 26 Public-Private Partnerships (PPIs), 20 managed by CODEVASF and 6 by DNOCS, distributed across seven Brazilian states, using data extracted from institutional reports from 2020. Seven indicators comprised the analytical basis: Water Profitability (RA), Water Operational Efficiency (EOA), Financial Insufficiency Index (ISF), Default Rate (IAD), Land Use Index (IUS), Area Profitability (RAR), and Job Creation (GE). Three multi-criteria methods were integrated: PROMETHEE II and TOPSIS with Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) and TOPSIS with entropy weighting. The projects revealed significant heterogeneity in both economic and operational dimensions, confirming the relevance of the adopted multi-criteria approach. The convergence between the methods proved to be consistent: Sen. Nilo Coelho, Maniçoba, Brumado, and Curaçá stood out as projects of excellence, while Cotinguiba/Pindoba, Boacica, and Estreito systematically occupied the most critical positions. The Pearson correlation r = 0.851 between TOPSIS-MC and TOPSIS-Entropy, combined with the stability of the rankings in the simulations, proved the robustness of the constructed indices. The results demonstrate that the proposed methodological integration converts the complexity of water management into objective and comparable metrics, providing concrete technical support to the regulatory action of ANA and to the advancement of the National Irrigation Policy.