Reflexos econômicos dos cenários eleitorais de 2018 e 2022 sobre o equilíbrio orçamentário e financeiro

Abstract

This research investigates the partisan orientation of Brazilian state governments in the 2018 and 2022 elections, specifically analyzing the dichotomy between parties that advocate a more controlled fiscal policy, focusing on austerity, spending restraint, and primary surplus, versus those that adopt a more wasteful or expansionary view of public spending, and whether this has a measurable impact on the conduct of fiscal policy during the respective term. The central question is to analyze whether there is a relationship between the elected party profile, whether it advocates a controlled or expansionary fiscal policy, and the actual conduct of fiscal policy in subsequent years, using electoral and fiscal databases. The data were collected from the SICONFI website and the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). The research gap lies in verifying whether the premise of fiscal control is respected after the election, or whether there is a divergence between discourse and fiscal practice. Using a Tobit model, this study seeks to verify fiscal compliance among state federative units in the 2018 and 2022 elections. The literature indicates that there are political-budgetary cycles, where elected officials tend to alter public spending during election periods, but there are controversies regarding the continuity of fiscal policy post-election. The results showed that political and electoral factors are not as effective given budgetary rigor. No substantial evidence was found that these factors, linked to state elections, were preponderant in relation to the fiscal rigidity imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Law. These theoretical and methodological contributions broaden the understanding of fiscal management, providing new perspectives and support for future research in the area.