Análise de risco econômico da aquisição de uma máquina automática de corte na indústria de couro cearense

Abstract

Many factories have already gone through circumstance in which, to meet growing demand, produce to the extent that bump in production capacity, thereafter, may seek increased capacity through mechanization of the process. The study that follows, the technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to verify, before a scenario with uncertain variables, the economic feasibility of purchasing an automatic leather cutting into a tapestry. In the analysis, the projected future cash flows, leading to the conclusion that such an investment would be paid for with savings in payroll and better utilization of the raw material (leather), on the other hand there would be additional costs for maintenance and electricity needed for equipment . Then built up a simulation model, which was implemented in order to generate the probability distribution of the behavior of each of the predictor variables, Net Present Value (NPV), equivalent uniform Value (vaue), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Discounted Payback and Simple. It was observed then that the balance between savings and additional spending enabled the recovery of investment in a period less than 5 years (83.20% chance for the discounted payback). The application of methods NPV, IRR and vaue was needed to complete the project investment is quite profitable, with 81.71% success rate as (NPV> 0), however analysis of the variability of distributions generated (coefficient of variation 114% for NPV) showed that, although profitable, investment is risky. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the variables that most influence the variability and predictive value of the variables. It is accepted then the investment, but with a commitment to stimulate sales and controlling its variability.