Análise multicritério da suscetibilidade às inundações e alagamentos da área urbana do município de Morada Nova-CE

Abstract

Mapping areas susceptible to flooding has been an essential tool for planning actions to prevent and mitigate the risk of hydrological disasters. Although the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB) has developed flood susceptibility maps for some municipalities considering hydrogeological factors, identifying areas susceptible to these events in urban areas requires specific mapping that also considers anthropogenic factors. Therefore, this study aims to map the areas susceptible to flooding in the urban area of Morada Nova-CE. To this end, the main influencing factors in flooding were identified, and a multicriteria analysis of environmental, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors was performed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method associated with Geographic Information Systems technologies to create a susceptibility map and analyze the neighborhoods most susceptible to these events. The mapping validation was performed by comparing the AHP map and the SGB susceptibility map with real records of floods and inundations from 2009 and 2024. Preliminary results indicate that the AHP mapping has 96.36% accuracy in relation to the inventory map of real records and is more suitable for delineating susceptible areas in the urban zone than the SGB map, which had 12.72% accuracy. Furthermore, the AHP mapping demonstrates that 44.68% of the urban area of Morada Nova is in an area of high (39.53%) or very high (5.15%) susceptibility to floods and inundations. Therefore, the study demonstrated that AHP mapping is a suitable alternative for identifying areas susceptible to extreme hydrological events in the urban area of Morada Nova. The susceptibility map produced in this study is expected to assist in the management of hydrological disaster risks in the municipality, contributing to the achievement of the goals of Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 13, related to building more resilient cities and addressing climate change.