Reforma da Previdência no Brasil: avaliação crítica da Emenda Constitucional 103/2019 e seus efeitos sobre os direitos previdenciários no Ceará

Abstract

This research, still in the qualification phase, aims to evaluate the effects of Constitutional Amendment No 103/2019 on access to social security rights for rural workers in the state of Ceará, between the years 2020 and 2021, with emphasis on regional and social inequalities. The empirical basis comprises public data extracted from the National Social Security Institute (INSS), institutional reports, related legislation, and specialized literature. The theoretical and methodological framework is based on content analysis and the Evaluative Research approach, as proposed by Silva and Silva (2005), in addition to incorporating theoretical contributions from authors such as Carvalho (2019), Afonso (2007), Pierson (2004), Draibe (2001), Esping-Andersen (1990), Bourdieu (1998), and Araújo (2000, 2006), whose works discuss the configuration of the welfare state, the limits of fiscalism, the institutionalization of social security, and the regional dimension of public policies. The evaluation focuses on the denial of social security benefits, classified by type, social profile, geographic location, and legal justification. The results suggest a tightening of eligibility criteria, a deepening of institutional selectivity, and an expansion of social security exclusion, with disproportionate effects on informal workers, women, elderly people living in poverty, and rural residents. It is concluded that Constitutional Amendment No 103/2019 has restricted access to social security rights, breaking with fundamental constitutional principles and demanding a normative reformulation of the model of access to social protection. Regarding the investigation, some methodological and contextual limitations must be acknowledged. The time frame - limited to the years 2020 and 2021 - provides only an initial overview of the effects of Constitutional Amendment No 103/2019, without capturing its medium- and long-term developments. Furthermore, although the data used are public and institutional, they present limitations in the disaggregation of fundamental variables for a more in-depth analysis of exclusion profiles. Additionally, the choice of the state of Ceará as the unit of analysis, although appropriate to the regional scope of the study, limits the possibility of generalizing the results at the national level.