Previdência social brasileira: entre a construção do déficit e as alternativas para o alcance da sustentabilidade

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the Social Security budget as an inseparable part of Social Protection, in order to assess the extent of the alleged deficit that has been used to justify drastic reforms. To understand the current scenario, statistical and budgetary data were examined, drawn from official sources such as the National Social Security Institute (INSS), the National Association of Tax Auditors of the Brazilian Federal Revenue (ANFIP), and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), also considering future projections. Furthermore, in analyzing the budget in an integrated manner, contributions from renowned authors who study the subject were employed, among them Denise Gentil, Ivanete Boschetti, and Rogério Nagamine Costanzi. As a theoretical basis for analyzing the depletion of revenues and the various mechanisms for mitigating social contributions, the CPIPREV report was examined, whose considerations provide support for the finding that reformist arguments tend to obscure the deviations that have occurred. The analysis of the empirical material revealed that, despite the accelerated demographic transition and cultural transformations associated with the so-called Generation Z, Brazil has the economic capacity to ensure the sustainability of the social protection system. In this regard, various possibilities for adjustment in social security management were examined, ranging from hybrid models, virtual accounts, and sectoral contributions to changes in eligibility criteria. However, the comparative analysis of these alternatives demonstrated that strictly parametric solutions are insufficient to guarantee long-term sustainability. This is because the budget requires profound revisions, with an emphasis on reassessing public expenditures, especially regarding tax exemptions and the harmful effects of recent reforms. Moreover, it is imperative to expand investment in policies aimed at strengthening public governance and formalizing employment.