Avaliação da exposição e vulnerabilidade a desastres socionaturais na expansão de cidades sem planejamento formal: o caso de Icapuí, Ceará.

Abstract

Given the urban unpreparedness in the mitigation of natural disasters, resulting from historically reactive public management policies in Brazil, this work investigates the methodological process for developing urban policies oriented towards the mitigation of natural disasters that encompass multifactorial risk indicators. Considering the continuous increase in the frequency and intensity of disasters over the last century, and the prospect of this scenario worsening with the advance of climate change, the research explores strategies for the identification and inclusion of social indicators in the risk assessment of cities without formal urban planning. Regarding the dynamism of the contemporary city and the need for reinventing urban planning, this dissertation examines the assessment of expansion areas as a basis for directing public policies. Based on the characterization of the relationship between socio-natural disasters and urban dynamics in the municipality of Icapuí/CE, the level of vulnerability of the main urban expansion areas was classified by analyzing specific indicators for the region. The adopted methodology is Design Science Research, which enabled the dynamic validation and evaluation of the results presented during the development of the classification method throughout the research. The work offers contributions on how to classify, evaluate, and quantify the risk of socio-natural disasters in urban sections, guiding priority aspects for urban policies aimed at disaster mitigation and city resilience. Furthermore, it presents a diagnostic study on the state of vulnerability of Icapuí's urban expansion areas, historical contextualization, and characterization of drivers in the development of Disaster Management Policies and procedures for data collection in municipalities without monitoring.