Comércio exterior e emprego formal nos municípios cearenses: uma análise para o período 1997-2002

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the impact of international trade, particularly high-technology trade, on the level of formal employment in municipalities of Ceará between 1997 and 2002. The central objective is to assess how trade openness and technological integration affected the number of formal jobs, considering the role of municipal gross domestic product and average labor income. The study seeks to understand whether the intensification of international exchanges contributed to job creation or, conversely, generated concentrating effects characterized by labor substitution and technological dependence.The methodology employed is based on econometric panel data models with two-way fixed effects (Two-Way Fixed Effects – TWFE). Regarding international trade, the variables of openness and trade volume showed an impact on the number of formal employment ties, indicating that the expansion of trade is associated with an increase in formal employment. However, variables related to technological intensity negatively affected the number of formal jobs. These results suggest that as high-tech trade increases its relative share within total trade, its effect on employment becomes negative. This indicates that rising technological intensity may be associated with the substitution of local productive activities by imports of capital goods and highly complex inputs.