Influência de mecanismos de mesoescala na variabilidade espacial da precipitação no Ceará

Abstract

ln tbis work, we use Multivariate Analysis and Mesoscale !lifeteorology to understand the spatial distribution mechanism of the rainfall over the Ceará state, located at northeast of Brazil. First, we study the rainfall spatial distribution over a period from December 1993 to June 1994. Vve apply two factorial methods, the Principal Components Analysis and the Correspondence Analysis on a daily rainfall data-set of 183 pluviometric stations distributed over Ceará. Our purpose is to identify spatial regional patterns with high pluviometric correlation. We choose cases in this period, which presented rainfall with high spatial variability. These cases are then simulated using the CSU-RAMS mesoscale nwnerical model, which is initialized with NCEP synoptic data. From the numerical simulations, we identify the mesoscale elements that might justify the irregular rainfall distribntion over the stndied region. The model results are compared with the observed data, to examine i;be sinmlat.ion credibility and to support the subsequent simulation data analysis. Thereby, we try better evaluate the mesoscale mechanisms that act in each studied case and how they affect the spatial variability of the pluviometric regime.