Análise estátistica da relação entre a produtividade do milho e variáveis climáticas na região nordeste (2013 - 2023)

Abstract

This study analyzed the influence of climatic variables — annual rainfall and average temperature — on maize yield in the Northeast Region of Brazil from 2013 to 2023. The research adopted a quantitative approach using secondary data from IBGE and INMET. The analyses involved descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression, performed using R Studio software. Results indicated a statistically significant positive effect of rainfall on maize productivity, while temperature showed a negative relationship, although with low practical magnitude. The adjusted linear model presented an R² of 0.03, and the logarithmic model reached 0.11, suggesting that climatic factors explain only a small portion of yield variability. It is concluded that, despite the relevance of climate, factors such as crop management, technology, and public policies play a crucial role in regional agricultural productivity. Integrated strategies are recommended, including irrigation, development of resilient cultivars, and strengthening of technical assistance.