Campeões de audiência e também de votos? Desempenho eleitoral de candidatos ligados à radiodifusão

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between media capital and electoral success in local elections, focusing on the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections. The research seeks to answer the following question: does the possession of media capital, whether through visibility or ownership of media outlets, significantly increase the chances of election for candidates for municipal office? To answer this question, the study analyzes the electoral performance of mayoral and council candidates who have a connection to broadcasting, either as communicators or as owners of communication vehicles. The central hypothesis is that media capital confers a significant competitive advantage to candidates, increasing the chances of electoral success, with media ownership being more advantageous than media visibility. By cross-referencing data from the TSE and Anatel, 4,533 candidates with ties to broadcasting were identified throughout Brazil, of whom 3,367 were communicators, 544 were owners of radio and/or television stations, and 39 were both communicators and owners. The statistical techniques employed were descriptive and exploratory analysis, two-dimensional analysis, and logistic regression modeling, which allow us to compare the electoral performance of different candidate profiles linked to broadcasting and verify whether the central hypothesis is confirmed. The results of the two simplest analyses indicate that candidates who own media outlets have a significant positive association with election results, but those who are communicators demonstrate a negative association. However, logistic regression found no statistically significant link with electoral success in either case. In addition to media capital, other variables were analyzed, revealing that the following characteristics are associated with a greater likelihood of electoral success for a candidate: being male, white, having a higher education, belonging to a large party, being part of a coalition, having assets above the median, and running for an elected office already held. Conversely, spending above the median on a campaign significantly decreases the chances of election.