Análise do perfil das famílias inadimplentes e estimação dos seus determinantes segundo a POF 2017-2018 (IBGE)

Abstract

Financial education has been discussed more frequently over the years, largely due to the variety of financial products currently available in the market. As a result, individuals are exposed to various payment options that impact their financial resources and directly affect the increase or decrease of delinquency. In this context, the present research aims to analyze the socioeconomic profile of delinquent Brazilian families and estimate their determinants to highlight the factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of individuals being in delinquency. To achieve this, data was extracted from the POF 2017/2018 survey conducted by IBGE, and the Binomial Logit method was used to estimate these determinants. The results indicate that delinquent families have characteristics such as being headed by women, heads of households who are married and not of white ethnicity, lacking formal employment, not being self-employed, and not being public servants. They have an average of 9.5 years of education and are relatively older (52/53 years). Some delinquent families reside in rural areas (15.12%), with a higher proportion in the North (11.37%) and Northeast (32.64%) regions, and those receiving income transfers (15.09%). Additionally, delinquent families have a higher number of children (average of 0.66). Finally, for this group, there is a lower number of checking accounts and credit cards, as well as lower disposable income compared to compliant families. Regarding the determinants, factors that increase the chances of families being delinquent include residing in rural areas, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. Furthermore, delinquency rises among families headed by self-employed individuals and those benefiting from income transfers. Lastly, it is also associated with a higher number of children and checking accounts