Dinâmica regional e setorial do emprego industrial no Estado do Ceará no período de 1986-2010

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze which structural components influence the dynamics of growth of industrial employment in the State of Ceará, 1986-2010. The analysis is developed from the decomposition of traditional shifL-share model with the incorporation of the concept of homothetic employment. This extended model enables the decomposition of employment change into four components: national share, industry mix effect, competitive effect and allocation effect. The study takes place in two steps further: it is an analysis of the coefficient of restructuring to identify changes in the productive structure of the state. Subsequently, it is estimated an econometric model to perform an impact analysis of the structural components of the shift-share method on the coefficient of restructuring. In this study data are from the Annual Social Information - RAIS, provided by the Minislry of Labor and Employment - MTE, broken down into 12 sectors of activities in micro-regional levei. The results showed the period 1986-2010 the net change of States mainly by micro Fortaleza, Cariri and Baixo Jaguaribe showing that these micro-showed the most dynamic growth in relation to the State. The coefficient of restructuring showed that the state has a low change in its production structure gave values very close to zero. Regression analysis showed that the coefficient of restructuring is explained by the structural components of the shift-share in the period 1986-2010.