Elasticidade da massa de rendimentos habituais em resposta às variações na arrecadação de ICMS: um estudo em painel dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

This monograph analyzes the elasticity of habitual income in response to variations in the collection of the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) in Brazilian states. Using quarterly data from 2012 to 2023, the study adopts a balanced dynamic panel model, estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), to capture the relationship between ICMS revenue and economic variables, such as habitual income and average household income. The results indicate that habitual income has a positive and significant impact on ICMS revenue, with an estimated elasticity ranging from 0.23% to 0.26% for each 1% increase in income. On the other hand, average household income did not show a statistically significant effect. Diagnostic tests confirmed the validity of the instruments and the absence of second-order autocorrelation problems, ensuring the robustness of the results. This study contributes to understanding the relationship between population income and tax collection, offering insights for the development of more effective fiscal policies aligned with economic growth.