Análise de risco-retorno nas ações dos bancos brasileiros no período de 2019 - 2023

Abstract

This study analyzed the relationship between risk and return of the shares of major Brazilian banks — Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Itaú, and Santander — during the period from 2019 to 2023, a period marked by economic volatility and changes in monetary policies. Key financial metrics were investigated, including annual stock price fluctuations, average returns, standard deviation, market Beta, and the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), with the aim of understanding how the different financial strategies adopted by each bank impacted these crucial elements for investment decision-making. The quantitative approach used allowed for the calculation of average returns, risk levels, and the covariance of the stocks with the IBOVESPA index, in order to estimate expected returns. Among the results obtained, it was found that Banco do Brasil exhibited the highest fluctuation and return, but also the highest associated risk, while Itaú stood out for the best risk-return ratio, reflecting a more balanced financial strategy. Bradesco and Santander showed negative fluctuations in their stock prices but maintained a more defensive behavior. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of risk and return management in the Brazilian banking sector, providing relevant data for investors, financial analysts, and managers in formulating more effective and assertive strategies for resource allocation.