Viabilidade econômico-financeira da ampliação da área de panificação em um supermercado: indicadores econômicos e análise de cenários

Abstract

The bakery sector has been increasingly modernizing to meet the growing demand in Brazil. In this context, structured financing projects are essential for optimizing return on investment and minimizing risks, thereby strengthening the sector’s competitiveness. Therefore, this article aims to analyze the economic and financial feasibility of expanding the bakery section of a supermarket located in the municipality of Pedra Branca, Ceará, Brazil. The research is classified as descriptive and follows a single-case study approach, quantitative in nature, with data collection based on action research. The choice of the bakery sector for investment is justified by its high growth potential and higher profit margins compared to other supermarket departments. The evaluation includes the application of economic engineering concepts to assess the project, using indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Minimum Attractiveness Rate (MAR), and Payback, in addition to demand and revenue projections under different scenarios (likely, optimistic, and pessimistic). The results indicate that, in the likely and optimistic scenarios, the project is feasible, with satisfactory financial returns, while the pessimistic scenario reveals significant challenges, high risks, and potential economic infeasibility. The study concludes that the decision to implement the expansion should consider current economic and operational conditions, as well as risk mitigation strategies. The project provides a solid basis for decision-making, enabling the maximization of success opportunities and sustainable growth.