Subvenções e assistências governamentais e risco de falência: evidências no Brasil

Abstract

Companies play an important role in ensuring the socioeconomic progress of a region and their dissolution implies losses for several users. In this context, some studies were developed with the aim of building bankruptcy risk prediction models that could demonstrate the financial situation of the company. As a form of protection or leverage, companies can obtain government subsidies and assistance (SAG), which are revenues that integrate the firm's result, which is independent of its operational performance. In this context, it seems to be noticeable that subsidies and other forms of government intervention can have some impact on the risk of bankruptcy. Given the above, this research aims to evaluate the effect of SAG in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of publicly traded Brazilian companies, revealing the magnitude of the impact of this resource on the risk of bankruptcy. The analysis is carried out on a sample composed of 250 publicly traded Brazilian companies listed on B3 S/A, distributed in an unbalanced panel between 2010 and 2020, totaling 2,151 observations. This research uses the bankruptcy risk prediction model proposed by Altman (1968). The research results support the proposition that receiving subsidies (RSAG) and the value of these subsidies (MSAG) contribute to the increase in the bankruptcy risk (RF) score, indicating a reduction in the chance of company bankruptcy. In addition, the research also brought evidence that indicates that companies that do not receive SAG have higher RF scores. Finally, a decrease in the RF score was observed during the investigated period, which suggests an increase in the probability of companies becoming unable to meet their financial obligations. This study brings important contributions on the use of SAG as a way to reduce the risk of bankruptcy in Brazilian companies.