Efeito da substituição tributária carga líquida do ICMS nos setores atacadista e varejista de vestuário e confecções: um estudo de caso para o Decreto nº 34.256/2021 no Estado do Ceará

Abstract

Decree No. 34.256/2021, which regulates Law No. 14.237/2008, was implemented to establish a simplified and operational ICMS taxation regime for wholesale and retail traders of clothing and apparel in the state of Ceará. This decree marked the transition from the ICMS apportionment system through the offsetting of credits and debits (non-cumulative) to taxation through the substitution tax, in which the taxpayer with activities listed in the decree, acting as the substitute taxpayer, began to collect the tax for the entire supply chain up to the final consumer at the moment the goods enter the state or their establishment. Additionally, the decree aimed to stimulate the local economy by adopting a lower tax burden on internal operations. To analyze the impact of this new tax policy, data provided by the State Finance Secretariat of Ceará (SEFAZ-CE) for the period from 2018 to 2023 was used. The Difference-in-Differences (DD) econometric method was adopted to estimate the results, considering companies under the Regular Taxation Regime as the treatment group and companies under the Simples Nacional as the control group. This methodology allowed for a comparison of ICMS collection before and after the implementation of the decree, isolating the specific effect of the tax policy. The results indicate that there was an increase in ICMS collection for companies under the Regular Taxation Regime after the adoption of the substitution tax, confirming the effectiveness of the new system in terms of tax revenue. Additionally, the impact of the tax policy on promoting the local economy was evaluated, specifically whether the differentiated system incentivized internal purchases. The data showed no statistically significant effect. In summary, Decree No. 34.256/2021 had a positive impact on ICMS collection for companies under the Regular Taxation Regime in the wholesale and retail clothing and apparel sector in Ceará, but it was not conclusive regarding the promotion of the local economy through the analysis of internal purchases.