Impacto das dívidas ativas tributária e não-tributária no crescimento econômico dos municípios brasileiros: uma análise de dados em painel

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of active tax and non-tax debts on the per capita GDP of Brazilian municipalities, using panel data for the period from 2013 to 2021. Empirical evidence is presented highlighting the importance of fiscal management and the complexity of active debts in Brazilian municipalities. The analysis is conducted using fixed effects regression models and the dynamic Arellano-Bond methodology. The results indicate that tax debt as a percentage of GDP has a negative and statistically significant impact on the ln(GDP per capita), with a coefficient of -0.014 in the fixed effects model. This suggests that a 1% increase in the proportion of tax debt relative to GDP reduces per capita GDP by approximately 1.4%. The analogous analysis for non-tax debt shows an even more pronounced effect, with a coefficient of -0.039, indicating a reduction of 3.9% in per capita GDP for each 1% increase in the proportion of non-tax debt. The positive quadratic terms of the percentages of both debts relative to GDP may suggest that, at high levels of debt, the negative impact decreases due to intensified recovery efforts. Analyses using the Arellano-Bond methodological approach corroborate the results of the fixed effects models, reinforcing the consistency of the findings over time. Control variables, such as labor market formalization and sectoral diversification, also show statistical significance, with formalization having a positive impact on per capita GDP. This study highlights the relevance of public policies that promote labor formalization and sectoral development, as well as the need for efficient fiscal management for the sustainable economic growth of Brazilian municipalities.