Microcrédito orientado para as MEIS e o impacto sobre os indicadores de inadimplência

Abstract

The present dissertation analyzes the impact of Law nº 13.636, which flexibilized access to microcredit oriented to individual microentrepreneurs, on the default rate associated with this segment of the credit market. There are several empirical evidences that relate access to the credit market and the economic development of a country or region. However, when formulating policies aimed at facilitating access to the credit market, it is necessary to observe the particularities of such market, especially those related to the problems of asymmetric information, adverse selection and moral risk. Otherwise, the goals of financial inclusion and democratization of access to credit may end up being supplanted by high default rates. To perform the analysis here intended, the econometric model of multiple linear regression was applied, with data obtained through BACEN’s Temporal Series Management System, for the period between March 2012 and September 2023. The choice of the above methodology is justified, since it allows to infer if there was any change in the temporal behavior of the default after the promulgation of Law nº 13.636. In general, the results indicate that after the flexibility brought by the legislation in question, the growth trend in the rate of default has become significantly more pronounced, thus indicating that there was a deterioration in the health of microentrepreneurs’ credit market.