Impacto do preço da tilápia, da taxa de câmbio e do covid-19 nos preços do camarão no estado do Ceará

Abstract

Today, shrimp farming, as well as shrimp fishing, are important economic activities and are widely carried out along the entire length of the Brazilian coast due to the high commercial value of shrimp, as well as its historical, cultural and social importance. The State of Ceará stands out in national shrimp production, being once again the production leader for the fifth consecutive year in 2022, with a production of 61,304,433 tons, according to data from the 2022 Municipal Livestock Survey, carried out by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Tilapia is the common name for approximately 70 species of fish in the Cichlidae family. Native to Africa and the Middle East, tilapia has become one of the main groups of fish farmed in the world, being produced in more than 100 countries. The exchange rate is the price of one currency in relation to another currency. Its importance comes from the fact that it mediates all transactions between the domestic economy and the rest of the world. The Covid-19 pandemic took the entire world by surprise, causing unforeseen impacts on the most diverse sectors of the economy, such as the fishing sector. The present study aims to evaluate the impacts of the price of tilapia, the exchange rate and the covid-19 pandemic on shrimp prices in the State of Ceará. For this purpose, price series in kg of shrimp and tilapia were used, as well as the effective exchange rate series and a binary variable, which assumes 1 for the months in which Covid-19 is present and 0 otherwise. The period analyzed was from January 2014 to July 2022. The results obtained showed that large shrimp had the highest average price variation while tilapia had the lowest average. A relationship was indicated between tilapia prices and the prices of medium and large shrimp, pointing to a possible relationship of substitute goods between the two. The coefficient associated with the exchange rate indicated a relationship between the exchange rate and the price of shrimp. The coefficient associated with covid-19 indicated that it had a negative impact on the price of shrimp, that is, the price of shrimp fell during the months indicated with the presence of covid.