Uma análise da Lei de Okun e da curva de Phillips para a economia da região metropolitana de Fortaleza no período de 2009 a 2016

Abstract

This study estimates the relationship established by the Phillips curve and the Okun’s law for the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, between 2009 and 2016. For this, it is used models and techniques for time series that consider the presence of structural breaks. The results show that there is a negative relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate, and this relation is statistically significant for the Fortaleza Metropolitan Region, during the period studied. In the case of the inverse relationship between the gap of the variable used as a proxy for economic activity and unemployment, the data from the period from 2009 to January 2014 confirmed the relationship, but the data for the period after January 2014 contradicted the relationship provided by Okun's law.