Diferencial de medidas adotadas no Plano Real em relação aos seus antecessores na tentativa de estabilização da economia brasileira

Abstract

This work investigates what was the differential of measures adopted by the Real Plan, which mitigated its success, in comparison with the previous stabilization plans: Cruzado I and II, Bresser, Verão and Collor I and II. The research methodology adopted was descriptive and quantitative, since the work describes the behavior of the variables monthly inflation between 1986 and 1995, GDP and its deflator, trade balance and extreme poverty on an annual basis between 1986 and 1997. It was also based on a bibliographical research, as it carried out a literature review, pointing out the point of view of different authors regarding the measures adopted in each plan. Data for monthly inflation follows the IPCA indicator and was collected from the IPEA database. The values referring to the GDP and its deflator and trade balance were acquired on the IBGE website. Finally, data on extreme poverty were collected from the World Bank website. As for the results, they suggest that the main differential of the Real Plan was to pay attention to the presence of economic agents' expectations regarding future inflation as the main cause of the inflationary acceleration that happened in the period, which the other plans did not pay attention to. In addition, another differential was first finding a way to change the expectations of agents, and then implementing a monetary reform accompanied by economic policies, in addition to acting against the indexation that was strongly present in the Brazilian economy.