Modelagem colaborativa e jogo sério para a tomada de decisão de alocação de águas em reservatórios durante secas.

Abstract

Water resources management is a complex and challenging issue, requiring an approach that considers the interdependence of social and natural factors. This thesis aims to enhance social participation tools in water resources management through collaborative modeling that incorporates the creation of user and water manager preference systems for decision-making in water allocation during droughts in reservoirs. Additionally, it aims to empower the social agents involved in the allocation process through the application of a serious game. The research is summarized in tree scientific papers aimed at contributing to sustainable water resource management. The first paper presents a methodology for modeling a socio-natural system using influence diagrams and applies it to the short-term negotiated allocation of water from a reservoir in the state of Ceará, Brazil. This approach includes the social and natural aspects of water allocation, providing a decision support model capable of integrating quantitative and qualitative information. Additionally, this methodology allows for the analysis of short-term risks and benefits, considering the uncertainty of available information. The resulting influence network can model various operational scenarios, enabling users to understand the consequences of their decisions on water availability. The second paper proposes a collaborative modeling approach for defining hedging curves in reservoirs, involving the participation of stakeholders in defining acceptable risks. By optimizing a stakeholder preference system, the approach considers the different perspectives and interests involved in water resource management. The methodology was applied to a set of reservoirs in Ceará, considering the preferences of managers from the Water Resources Management Company of Ceará (COGERH). This collaborative approach promotes more inclusive and equitable water resource management, with the potential to become an instrument capable of integrating short- and long-term allocation. The third paper introduces the methodological tool "Drought in game", a serious game that seeks to enhance social participation in water resource management by facilitating the development of proactive drought plans. This tool was applied in two hydrological systems in Ceará, facilitating collaboration among different user sectors involved in water resource management. The game improved understanding of water issues during periods of scarcity and enhanced communication and joint decisionmaking. The proposal of a methodology that integrates models and tools for decision-making in water resources, with a focus on socio-natural approaches, plays a crucial role in modeling complex systems, such as water allocation. The creation of a user and decision-maker preference system allows for the inclusion of different perspectives and interests, promoting equitable water resource management. Through this participatory approach, stakeholders could contribute their knowledge and interests, ensuring that the model is more comprehensive and legitimate for decision-makers. This methodology represents a significant advancement in the search for efficient and socially just solutions for water resource management, and its practical application can result in tangible benefits for nature and society.