Impacto das mudanças climáticas na evapotranspiração em nível de bacia hidrográfica utilizando um sistema de informações geográficas

Abstract

Climate change could potentially alter the hydrologic cycle processes, such as precipitation, which affect surface runoff, temperature and relative humidity and are closely related to evaporation and streamflow in water bodies and evapotranspiration from plants. An ensemble of data composed of a baseline (base climatology) of the 1961-1990 model and climate projections were run (from 2025 to 2055, represented by the year 2040). The data were thenextracted, considering the geographic coordinates of the region studied, with a 0.44 ̊ x 0.44º resolution, and the small squares were then generated for each variable in order to cover the entire region studied. The reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated using the mean monthly temperature data. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impacts of climate changes on temperature, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, considering the climate change scenarios on a local scale in the hydrographic basin (Jaguaribe river in the stretch between the dams of Castanhão and Itaiçaba).