Water resource management under changing climate: role of seasonal forecasts

Abstract

Continuing concern regarding global climate change underscores something that has been intuitively under- stood by many for quite some time. Climate has an epochal nature. In Ceara, we are exploring the development of a new tiered water contract system. Each contract would guarantee a user a certain amount of water for a set period (10 years or 1 year), with a specified reliability. The higher the reliability and the longer the duration, the higher the unit price for a contract. The idea is that reliable contracts could be issued in July for the upcoming year if the forecast and reservoir contents warrant them. The premium for these contracts would function ffectively as an insurance payment, and in the event of nonsupply the contract holder would be compensated. Such a system could increase reservoir use efficiency and may better buffer future inflow uncertainty, whether it be associated with a climate informed forecast or with ignorance about the future.