Mecanismo financeiro projetado com índices de seca como instrumento de gestão de risco em recursos hídricos

Abstract

This study explores the construction of the index insurance in order to manage the moral hazard in water resources as well as to mitigate impacts resulting from an inefficient allocation of water. A system with a pluriannual and multiple use (urban supply and irrigation) reservoir was analyzed. The index insurance was designed based on SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) with a time scale of 12 months and SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) with 12 and 24 months. In order to obtain sufficient resources to cover financial compensation a reserved fund was created that has annual revenues raised from human consumption and government. The index insurance model allows compensations that are paid based solely on the perceived value of the index, so that there is no need to estimate the actual loss of irrigation. The simulations showed that the SRI-24 index had the best performance for the interest rates applied, 0%, 2% and 3%. The proposed instrument can prevent opportunistic behavior of users (moral hazard) since they cannot influence the value of the index, the values of compensation and payment period. It can compensate for the risk transfer between conflicting sectors and generate greater equity in the water resource system.