Análise da efetividade das políticas anticíclicas: uma visão austríaca

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies and, finally, provides an insight of the Austrian school to the problems and solutions to an economic crisis. The countries chosen to analyze the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies were the United States and the Eurozone, as they were the center of the most important crises of the last two decades. The data analyzed were GDP, base interest rate (nominal) and debt to GDP ratio and were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the European Central Bank and the World Bank. The methodology used considered the effectiveness of the policies to be the fulfillment of the established goals, namely, to get out of the recession. The effectiveness would be to get out of the recession and have the stability of the macroeconomic indicators back in the pre-crisis period. The methodology used to evaluate the Austrian Theory of Economic Cycles was the inductive-logical method. The results showed that countercyclical tools were effective in getting countries out of the crisis but not effective, as there was no normalization of indicators. The Austrian Theory of Economic Cycles, however, has been able to satisfactorily explain the period under review and how countercyclical policies do not solve the problem in the long run.