Impactos da lei 14.300 na viabilidade de usinas de micro e minigeração fotovoltaica: estudo de caso no Ceará

Abstract

Growing energy inflation has increased the demand for renewable energy sources and Normative Resolution 482/2012 made investment in small and medium-sized plants feasible. However, between 2018 and 2019 Aneel presented a regulatory revision proposal changing the compensation rules of the current resolution, triggering several discussions about the impacts of this change on the distributed generation market. With this, there were intense moves by the sector's agents in search of greater legal certainty. In parallel to the revision of REN 482, at the end of 2019 the Bill 5,829 was presented in the National Congress for the institution of a legal framework for distributed microgeneration and minigeneration. In response, the bill was approved and became Law 14,300, sanctioned in January 2022. The Law establishes several changes in the compensation system and in the rules applicable to consumers with distributed generation. Considering the current context of regulatory transition, the objective of this paper is to present a financial assessment of the impacts of Law 14,300 on micro and minigeneration plants for Enel Ceará clients. Initially the main regulatory changes are described, followed by a study of four cases in different compensation modalities, two for microgeneration and two for minigeneration. The generation systems are sized to perform the feasibility analysis of the REN 482 and Law 14.300 scenarios. Finally, a comparative analysis is performed based on the results obtained. In the microgeneration cases there are no significant variations in payback, however, it is verified twice the percentage variation in IRR of the projects with remote self-consumption. Despite the reduction in the demand tariff applied in the minigeneration plants, the immediate collection of 100% of the B wire reduces the revenues in the cash flow of these projects. With this, it is concluded that there is a reduction in the viability of these projects in comparison with microgeneration. In summary, although Law 14,300 impacts the financial viability of distributed generation projects, investment in solar energy is still attractive. After the transition period, it is necessary to follow Aneel's proposal for valuation of the benefits of distributed generation.