Previsão da demanda hídrica de Fortaleza por meio de autômatos celulares

Abstract

Population growth, climatic variations and the development of consumption patterns tend to accentuate periods of water scarcity in several global conjunctures. In this bias, forecasts related to water consumption are fundamental for the elaboration of projects capable of mitigating the complications of droughts and increasing the resilience of supply systems. Thus, the present work deals with the main characteristics of the recently published scientific collection on the subject, and performs the forecast of urban water demand through dynamic modeling based on Cellular Automata (AC’s). The city of Fortaleza (CE) was used as a case study in order to prospect water consumption for the year 2040. The results show, mainly, the lack of studies that develop the forecast of urban water demand, especially for medium and long term. In addition, the prolongation of current trends in the growth of consumption patterns in Fortaleza, should generate an average annual growth of approximately 0.96%, providing an increase of 33% from 2010 (base year) to 2040 (forecast horizon ). In the face of such a situation, it is extremely necessary to expand the bibliographic production on the subject, in addition to developing strategies capable of reducing consumption patterns and designing favorable water balances.