Análise empírica dos efeitos da inflação no crescimento econômico e na variabilidade dos preços relativos

Abstract

This study examines the existence of nonlinearities on the relationships between inflation,economic growth and the relative prices variability (RPV) in Brazil. It also assesses the effects of the Brazilian stabilization program, known as “Plano Real”, on the relationship between inflation and economic performance. The analysis employs time series models that allows threshold effects (for analysis of relationship between inflation and economic growth; and inflation and RPV) and panel data models that allows threshold effects and structural break (on the analysis for relationship between inflation and economic growth). Considering the relation between inflation and growth, the results shows that relationship between inflation and economic growth would be negative only above a certain level of inflation, which confirms the findings of some empirical studies of economic literature. The results also show change evidences in relation between inflation and economic growth after “Plano Real”,probably because of changes in economy promoted by this policy. As for the relation between inflation and RPV in Brazil, the findings indicate that inflation would have a positive relationship with the RPV. However, this relationship shows a nonlinear behavioral standard in the sense that this would be more positive and significant above a certain level of inflation.