A produção industrial têxtil no Brasil e seus determinantes

Abstract

This paper studied the variables that influenced the Industrial Textile Production (PIT) in Brazil during the period between 2003 and 2014. The importance of this theme due to the extent that this sector has marked the history of humanity, besides its relevance as a sector of activity of the Brazilian economy - the textile industry in Brazil generates 1.5 million direct jobs nowadays (ABIT, 2015). The literature on the history of this segment of the economy was reviewed as well as the process of trade liberalization and recent macroeconomic aspects of Brazil. Data of Industrial Production, SELIC, IPCA and Exchange Rate, from IPEADATA were used from 2003 to 2014. The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) of the CNI from 2010 to 2014. The economic cycle measured by the IBC-Br of the BACEN, for the period 2003 to 2014. With these data, a model for PIT was estimated using the Maximum Likelihood method, with autoregressive components as explanatory variables to explain the evolution of that variable. The results suggest that the SELIC rate of interest of the Brazilian economy has a negative impact on the PIT, that the exchange rate and the economic cycle contributes to PIT and that there is a positive and long term relationship between ICEI and the PIT.