Modelagem econométrica do saldo da Previdência Social do Brasil

Abstract

This work aims to build models using econometrics techniques to explain the components of the balance of Social Security System, or in other words, the net value of tax revenues and the benefit values of the General Regime of Social Security. These models were subjected to statistic validations indicated in the theoretical reference of econometrics, to apply the method of ordinary least square from the classic model of linear regression. From an increasing longevity and the gradual decrease in the birth rate for Brazilian citizens, forming an almost biometrics conspiracy, combined with the benevolent rules for granting benefits, the projections show that pensions expenses will remain above the revenue and the difference between the two will increase year after year. These projections however, depend on assumptions about demographic and economic trends that serve as inputs for models of Social Security. These results confirm the inability of current Social Security rules to ease the actuarial deficit.