Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title in Portuguese: Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil.
Title: Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil.
Author: Zhang, Rong
Cuartas, Luz Adriana
Carvalho, Luiz Valerio de Castro
Leal, Karinne Reis Deusdará
Mendiondo, Eduardo Mário
Abe, Narumi
Birkinshaw, Stephen
Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna
Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique
Nobre, Carlos Afonso
Keywords: Clima
Clima- Variabilidade
Meio ambiente
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Hydrological Processes
Citation: ZHANG, Rong; CUARTAS, Luz Adriana; CARVALHO, Luiz Valerio de Castro; LEAL, Karinne Reis Deusdará; MEDIONDO, Eduardo Mário; ABE, Narumi; BIRKINSHAW, Stephen; MOHOR, Guilherme Samprogna; SELUCHI, Marcelo Enrique. Season‐based rainfall–runoff modelling using the probability‐distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil. Hydrological Processes. v.32. p. 2217–2230. 2018. Disponível em: Acesso: 06 ago. 2021.
Abstract: Southeastern Brazil is characterized by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic, and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the metropolitan region of São Paulo and hydroelectric power generation throughout the entire country. This research considered the upstream basins of the southeastern Brazilian reservoirs Cantareira (2,279 km2; water supply) and Emborcação (29,076 km2), Três Marias (51,576 km2), Furnas (52,197 km2), and Mascarenhas (71,649 km2; hydropower) for hydrological modelling. It made the first attempt at configuring a season-based probability-distributed model (PDM-CEMADEN) for simulating different hydrological processes during wet and dry seasons. The model successfully reproduced the intra-annual and interannual variability of the upstream inflows during 1985–2015. The performance of the model was very satisfactory not only during the wet, dry, and transitional seasons separately but also during the whole period. The best performance was obtained for the upstream basin of Furnas, as it had the highest quality daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and logarithmic Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.92 and 0.93 for the calibration period 1984–2001, 0.87 and 0.88 for the validation period 2001–2010, and 0.93 and 0.90 for the validation period 2010–2015, respectively. Results indicated that during the wet season, the upstream basins have a larger capacity and variation of soil water storage, a larger soil water conductivity, and quicker surface water flow than during the dry season. The added complexity of configuring a season-based PDM-CEMADEN relative to the traditional model is well justified by its capacity to better reproduce initial conditions for hydrological forecasting and prediction. The PDM-CEMADEN is a simple, efficient, and easy-to-use model, and it will facilitate early decision making and implement adaptation measures relating to disaster prevention for reservoirs with large-sized upstream basins.
metadata.dc.type: Artigo de Periódico
ISSN: 1099-1085
Appears in Collections:LABOMAR - Artigos publicados em revistas científicas

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
2018_art_rzhang.pdf1,54 MBAdobe PDFView/Open

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.