O clima da Região Nordeste entre 2009 e 2017: monitoramento e previsão

Abstract

This article initially provides a brief analysis of the climate modulating factors of the Northeastern region of Brazil, followed by an analysis of the observed rainfall between 2009 and 2017 (annually and for the February-March-April season). Subsequently, a discussion is held on the nature of the problem of seasonal climate forecasting and the need for change on the current forecast system adopted by national meteorological institutes. Consensus forecasts are presented for the February-March-April period, during the years of 2009 to 2017, and those forecasts from the Foundation for Meteorology and Water Management of Ceará (acronym in Portuguese Funceme) forecasting system, which is based on numerical modeling. The value of the forecasts for the decision-making process in these two formats, consensus forecasts and those based on numerical modeling, with a special focus on the period analyzed here are also discussed.