Predição para o índice de qualidade ambiental de municípios cearenses consorciados

Abstract

The environmental management in Brazil has relied increasingly in the economic based instruments for promoting the improvement of the environmental performance. In 2008, the state of Ceará adopted the Ecological ICMS, in which included the Urban Solid Waste Management as a criterion to transfer this tribute to municipalities, taken as basis the grades obtained by the municipality in the Environmental Quality Index (IQM). This paper aims to calculate the IQM to eleven municipalities of the Consortium of Solid Waste Integrated Management Jaguaribe Valley (CGIRS-VJ). Using data collected by the Form 18, regression models of KNM were used to make IQM predictions for the municipalities during 30 years. The results pointed out that, if the actual conditions were maintained during the period, no municipality of the region would achieved the maximum grade (1,0), unless thought out external intervention such as implanting the consortium and using the Form IQM 18-A.