Sustentabilidade fiscal a partir do custeio do setor público: uma análise setorial

Abstract

The study proposes a measure of sustainability based on the relationship between the investments made by the public sector and the costing resulting from them, using, as a case study, a sectorial analysis by the Ceará State government secretary in the period from 2012 to 2018. The aim is to verify whether costing expenses follow an unsustainable path, which would be characterized by a direct relationship between investments and an increasing evolution in the representativeness of costing in the group of current expenses. Therefore, it uses the data of the committed, settled and paid expenses of the state departments extracted from Ceará Transparente website. From two proposed econometric models with the exception of the result considering values committed to the level-level model, investments in the areas of health and education have a compensatory effect on costing as a proportion of current expenditure, despite the high representativeness of these areas on state expenditure. It is added that no possible influence of the electoral calendar on the representativeness of the cost in current expenditure has been identified in the analyzed scenarios. In addition to observing results that indicate a trend of unsustainability for costing expenses due to the investments made by state public entities. Altogether, these results point to an alert in terms of the need to establish evaluation criteria to ensure greater effectiveness of the investments made, in order to offset the increase in public sector costs.