Avaliação da aplicabilidade do método busca harmônica no ajuste da curva de weibull

Abstract

In face of the current and accelerated development of renewable energy sources in Brazil, especially the wind power source, it has become necessary to decrease the doubtful associated with the setup of wind farms. On these projects, the leading estimated variable is the generation of energy, which results from Weibull distribution's adjustment parameters, that represents the frequency distribution in a given zone. This work analyzes the Harmony Search (HS) method applicability in the adjustment of the Weibull distribution for Triunfo-PE area, Brazil Northeast. The method was executed on the RStudio program, using "R", a programming language, applying the Askarzadeh and Zebarjadi (2014) equations. The wind speed data used were available by the Environmental Data National Organization System (SONDA). Later, the heuristic method was confronted against eight traditional methods from Weibull distribution's adjustment parameters, applying RMSE, R², MAPE and WPD as a comparison criteria. The HS method, with the objective function adopted, proved to be quite fit for the concerned region, once its performance was proven higher than other methods in statistical tests, with the exception of WPD , which presented a value superior to 4%, restricting the use of HS to the preliminary analyzes of studies on the setup of wind farms in Triunfo.